The latest Texas Senate polls show Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 51–45, a stunning six-point edge in a state that hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly four decades. With the November 3 election just a month away, the Talarico vs. Paxton race has become one of the most consequential — and nerve-wracking for conservatives — contests of the 2026 midterms.
Fox News Poll: Talarico 51, Paxton 49
A Fox News poll released October 1 surveyed 1,203 likely Texas voters between September 24 and 28 and found Talarico clinging to a two-point lead, 51% to 49% — within the poll’s three-point margin of error. Among the broader pool of registered voters, Talarico’s advantage widened to seven points, just outside the margin of error.
The personal-favorability gap is the number that should worry Republicans most. Fifty-two percent of likely voters view Talarico favorably against 44% unfavorable — a net positive eight points. Paxton, by contrast, sits at 40% favorable and 58% unfavorable, a full 18 points underwater. Republicans are more than six times as likely to hold an unfavorable view of Paxton as Democrats are of Talarico.
As pollster Daron Shaw put it: “Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against Trump, so the question is whether the average Republican will vote in an election without Trump and where the Senate race features a controversial GOP candidate.”
NYT/Siena and Marist Confirm the Trend
The New York Times/Siena College poll released October 3 tells a similar story with a bigger margin: Talarico leading 51% to 45% among likely voters, just outside the poll’s 4.5-point margin of error. A Marist College poll taken the previous week also put Talarico ahead by six.
The NYT/Siena poll also carried a sobering data point for Republicans: President Trump’s approval rating in Texas stands at just 40%, with 57% disapproving. In a state Trump carried comfortably in the past, that number is the fuel behind every Democrat’s hopes.
The poll examined five Republican-held Senate seats across the country, and the message was consistent: Democrats are competitive everywhere. But the Texas result, paired with a six-point lead, stands as the most startling of the bunch.
A Republican Pollster Disagrees — And That’s the Point
Not every number favors the Democrat. Pulse Decision Science, a conservative polling firm based in Washington, D.C., released an internal survey showing Paxton ahead 48% to 45% among 800 likely voters surveyed September 24–27. The share of undecided voters has collapsed from 11% in May to just 4%, and Paxton’s team says those late deciders are breaking their way.
“Texans are learning more about James Talarico’s radical record every day, and undecided voters continue to break toward General Paxton,” said Paxton senior advisor Nick Maddux, who dismissed the public polls as “misleading public polls designed to usher in a nonexistent blue wave in Texas.”
Paxton’s camp has a point worth weighing: public pollsters have systematically underestimated Texas Republicans before. But a lead in nearly every September survey — Emerson, Mason-Dixon, Texas Southern University, SoCal Strategies, AARP, N+ Univision — makes the trend harder to dismiss as mere house effect.
Paxton’s Own Words Are Hurting Him
Nothing has damaged Paxton’s campaign more than the leaked fundraiser tape. Caught on audio telling conservative donors and lobbyists that “everybody’s numbers dropped” after the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas, Paxton handed his opponents a perfect soundbite — and gave nervous Republicans a reason to stay home.
Talarico, meanwhile, has seized the momentum. The 36-year-old state representative has publicly challenged Paxton to a debate — a challenge Paxton has refused to answer. Each day that goes by without a debate lets Talarico frame Paxton as a candidate afraid to defend his record.
The demographic splits in the Fox News poll map the battle lines. Talarico dominates among Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%), and voters under 35 (62%). Paxton counters with white evangelical Christians (74%), white men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%), and voters 65 and older (55%).
On issues, Talarico holds a 19-point edge among voters who rank the economy as their top concern — traditionally Republican territory. Paxton’s best issue, immigration, gives him a 20-point advantage among that subset, but it isn’t enough to close the gap.
Why Conservatives Still Have a Path
Here’s the cold water Democrats don’t want to hear: Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since the early 1990s. The same polls showing Talarico ahead also found voters preferring Republican control of the Senate over Democratic control, 50% to 49%. The Big Data Poll showed undecided leaners breaking toward Paxton, narrowing Talarico’s edge to under two points among likely voters.
With a month to go, massive late spending by GOP-aligned super PACs and the turnout machinery of a party that has owned Texas for a generation could still erase this deficit. But the window is closing fast — and Paxton’s underwater favorability gives Talarico a crossover advantage that money alone can’t buy.
The bottom line: Texas is genuinely in play for the first time in decades, and the November 3 election will answer the question every conservative is asking — are these Texas Senate polls a mirage, or is the Lone Star State about to turn blue?
