The latest Alaska Senate poll showing Mary Peltola leading Dan Sullivan 50-43 is the number Republicans have been dreading all fall. A New York Times/Siena College survey released October 3 gives the Democrat a seven-point edge over the two-term Republican incumbent — outside the margin of error and the largest lead any poll has handed her yet. With just one month until November 3, Alaska has become one of the most-watched battlegrounds in the fight for Senate control — see our breakdown of the 7 Senate Races That Will Decide the 2026 Midterms.
But before Democrats start measuring the drapes in Washington, a second poll tells a very different story. And in Alaska — the state political scientists call the hardest in the country to survey — a poll is sometimes just a poll.
The New York Times/Siena Numbers: Peltola 50, Sullivan 43
The Times/Siena poll, conducted September 21 through October 1 among likely voters, puts former congresswoman Mary Peltola at 50 percent and incumbent Dan Sullivan at 43 percent. The same survey shows Democrats hitting 50 percent or better in several Republican-held seats — including James Talarico’s 51-45 lead over Ken Paxton in Texas (read more: Texas Senate Polls: Talarico Leads Paxton 51–45) — a pattern that, if real, would put Senate control in genuine play.
Peltola is no stranger to stunning poll numbers. She burst onto the national stage in 2022 as the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, beating Sarah Palin in a special election before losing the seat to Nick Begich in 2024. Her “fish, family, and freedom” brand built the kind of crossover coalition Alaska rewards: voters who dislike the national Democratic brand but like her personally.
She’s also swimming in money. Federal Election Commission reports show Peltola has raised $18.5 million — dwarfing Sullivan’s $11.7 million — and already spent nearly $14 million of it.
But Another Poll Says It’s a Dead Heat
Here’s the catch. Just one day before the Times/Siena numbers dropped, Quantus Insights released its own Alaska survey — and found a dead heat: Sullivan 46.1 percent, Peltola 45.5 percent. The pollster himself called it a tie, and after asking the ballot question four different ways, Sullivan came out ahead every time.
Forecast models split the difference. Pollsmax projects Sullivan winning 50.7 to 49.4 and gives him a 58.8 percent chance of holding the seat, rating it Tilt Republican. Aggregators from Decision Desk HQ to RealClearPolitics show Peltola ahead by two to four points — inside the margin of error. One month earlier, Trafalgar had Sullivan up a point while Alaska Survey Research had Peltola up four, in the same week.
The Ranked-Choice Wild Card — and the Second Dan Sullivan
November’s contest will be decided by ranked-choice voting, which polling often fails to capture. Peltola mastered this system once: in 2022, she won the House seat by collecting second-choice votes after rivals were eliminated.
This time, Republicans face a bizarre new headache: there are two Dan Sullivans on the ballot. The incumbent shares it with another Republican also named Daniel Sullivan, a former schoolteacher, and GOP operatives openly worry voters will confuse the two — splitting ballots in ways that could sink the incumbent. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the race a pure Toss-up.
Sullivan’s Counterplay: The $54 Billion LNG Deal
Sullivan isn’t standing still. Just weeks before the election, he stood beside President Trump in the Oval Office to tout a $54 billion investment from South Korea into the long-dreamed Alaska LNG pipeline project. For a state whose economy lives and dies on energy development, the timing was no accident — and Peltola knew it, quickly praising the announcement and vowing to continue “this bipartisan work” with Trump.
The race also turned personal last month when The New York Times reported allegations of hostile behavior toward aides by Peltola. Her campaign denied any pattern of abuse but acknowledged she has struggled since the deaths of her mother and husband in 2023. Notably, Alaska’s other Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, came to her defense.
Both sides are about to flood the zone: Republican groups are expected to spend more than $80 million in Alaska from October through Election Day, with Democrats allotting over $50 million. In a state Trump won by 13.1 points in 2024, that spending signals neither party thinks this seat is safe.
Why Republicans Say This Race Isn’t Over
The conservative case for optimism rests on three pillars. First, Alaska is red at the presidential level — Trump’s 13-point 2024 win is hard to erase in two years. Second, the Quantus tie and models favoring Sullivan suggest Times/Siena may be the outlier, not the signal. Third, Alaska polling has a history of undercounting hard-to-reach conservative rural voters.
The counterargument: Peltola has done this before. She won in 2022 when everyone said she couldn’t, and she has the money, the name recognition, and a personal brand that transcends party. For Democrats — who need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate — Alaska would be the crown jewel.
With four weeks to go, this is now a turnout fight. One poll says blowout. Another says coin flip. The only number that matters comes November 3 — and Republicans in Washington are not taking it for granted anymore.
Updated: October 6, 2026
